Cross-impact analysis

Used in the analysis and deciding phase of scenario planning.

Cross-impact analysis (CIA) is a foresight methodology to map interrelationships between a set of scenarios/trends/factors to assess their potential combined impact. It uses a matrix to capture expert judgments on conditional probabilities, helping to identify how the occurrence of one factor might influence the probability of another. This analysis can uncover emergent challenges and opportunities, create potential future scenarios, and enhance strategic decision-making in complex systems.

Grid method

Construct a table with factors [A, B, C, D, ...] on X axis and [A, B, C, D, ...] on Y axis. You end up with a table that maps every possible pairwise interaction. Color coding indicates how strong the interaction is, creating a heatmap of interaction strength.

Resources

• Developed by Theodore Gordon and Olaf Helmer.
• Cross-impact analysis on Wikipedia