Pace layers are a model for thinking about change, first developed by.
Each layer acts as a platform for the layer above it, and moves more slowly, else it wouldn't act as a platform.
When exploring a problem space, ask
- What is changing quickly?
- What is not changing?
You have identified a pivot point.
Hunch — large-scale discontinuities in one layer will have dramatic effects on layers above, but attenuated effects on layers beneath.
Also: scenario planning.