Pace layers

Pace layers are a model for thinking about change, first developed by Stewart Brand.

Pace Layer diagram

Each layer acts as a platform for the layer above it, and moves more slowly, else it wouldn't act as a platform.

When exploring a problem space, ask

  • What is changing quickly?
  • What is not changing?

You have identified a pivot point.

Hunch — large-scale discontinuities in one layer will have dramatic effects on layers above, but attenuated effects on layers beneath.

Also: scenario planning.